Hungarian Elections Will Have Drastic Effects on Georgia
Giorgi Menabde
Executive Summary:
Georgian Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze congratulated Péter Magyar’s victory in Hungary’s April 12 parliamentary elections, expressing hope for continued Georgian–Hungarian cooperation. He also thanked outgoing Prime Minister Viktor Orbán for his long-standing support of Georgia’s national interests.
Orbán’s defeat has elicited various reactions in Georgia, as Hungary was the ruling Georgian Dream party’s only friend in Europe. The Georgian government and opposition will have to adjust their methods following Budapest’s change in direction.
Opposition figures and non-governmental organization leaders in Georgia fear that the Georgian government may tighten pressure on their ongoing protest movement and intensify repression to avoid the same fate as Orbán and his party.
A few hours after the results of Hungary’s April 12 parliamentary elections were announced, Georgian Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze congratulated Péter Magyar and his Tisza party on their victory. He also expressed gratitude to outgoing Prime Minister Viktor Orbán for his long-standing support of Georgia. In a statement posted on social media, Kobakhidze wrote:
I would like to thank Viktor Orbán and his team for their outstanding and steadfast support of Georgia’s national interests and the Georgian people over the years. Georgia and Hungary are bound by a long history of friendship and partnership, which will undoubtedly continue (X/@PM_Kobakhidze; Interpressnews; 1tv.ge, April 13).
Shortly before the Hungarian elections, on March 21, Kobakhidze attended the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) in Budapest and expressed his support for Orbán. Kobakhidze described Hungary’s upcoming parliamentary elections as “a watershed” moment not only for Hungary but also for Europe, expressing hope that the vote will take place “without the rough interference of the Brussels bureaucracy.” He thanked Orbán “for his steadfast support for Georgia” and added that Orbán’s leadership has helped Georgia protect its “democracy, national sovereignty, and identity” (Facebook/KobakhidzeOfficial, March 21). After returning to Georgia, Kobakhidze told reporters that Orbán’s Hungary “remains the main defender of Georgia’s national interests in Europe” (see EDM, April 8).
Despite Georgian Dream’s congratulations for Tisza’s victory, Member of Parliament Levan Machavariani demonstrated the prevailing attitude within the ruling Georgian Dream party’s leadership. In an interview with journalists, Machavariani stated that the Hungarian people “most likely did not see the dangers that Mr. Orbán was talking about.” Machavariani further argued, “In our case, the Georgians perceived very well the dangers that our country was facing and still faces today, and the vast majority of citizens consider Georgian Dream under the leadership of [Georgian Dream founder and billionaire] Bidzina Ivanishvili to be the guarantor from these dangers“(Facebook/Mtavarinow, April 14).
The most experienced Georgian politicians say the opposition’s victory in the Hungarian elections did not come as a surprise. David Berdzenishvili, who founded the Republican Party of Georgia in 1979, back during the communist tyranny, said in his April 14 interview with this author that in a post-totalitarian space, “power begets power.” Berdzenishvili asserted that “Magyar turned out to be for Orbán what, in essence, Saakashvili was for Eduard Shevardnadze” (Journal of Democracy, April 2004). [1] Berdzenishvili is sure that Orbán’s defeat in Hungary is very significant for Georgia in several respects. First, Orbán was a landmark for right-wing movements worldwide and appeared very strong. Berdzenishvili underlined, “His loss demonstrated that elections have a meaning even in hybrid democracies. Because of this, Hungary is an example for us” (Author’s interview, April 14).
A change of power in Hungary and the victory of the pro-European party will complicate Georgian Dream’s positions in Georgia and in Brussels. Former Member of Parliament Teona Akubardia stipulated in her April 15 interview with this author that Orbán’s defeat would sever the Russian influence corridor that shielded the Georgian Dream regime. Akubardia asserted, “Without Hungary’s veto, the European Union is poised to move from rhetoric to targeted personal sanctions against Bidzina Ivanishvili and Georgian Dream leadership, utilizing the already finalized OSCE [Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe] Moscow Mechanism report as the evidentiary basis for their accountability.” She went on saying, “Stripped of its ‘European shield,’ Georgian Dream faces a pre-election dead end: total isolation and overt reliance on Moscow, or a coerced realignment with the West.” Akubardia concluded, “The ‘Hungarian model’ of illiberalism within the European Union has collapsed, leaving the Georgian regime diplomatically naked. The choice now rests solely with Georgian Dream” (Author’s interview, April 15).
Many Georgian experts and the most influential opinion-makers agree that Orbán’s Hungary was the main stronghold of the Georgian government in Europe, and that Georgia is now losing its partners. Dr. Aleksander Tvalchrelidze, vice president of the Georgian Academy of Natural Sciences and academician of the European Academy of Arts and Sciences, said in his April 15 interview with this author that Orbán’s government has always blocked EU sanctions against Georgian Dream leaders. He stated, “Georgian Dream will have to adjust its policy and cooperate with Péter Magyar. Mr. Magyar, himself, has already expressed his desire to cooperate with Georgia.” He pointed out, however, that the principles of this cooperation will be completely different. “Magyar is pro-European. Magyar will not continue Orbán’s policy toward Georgia. Hungary’s foreign policy will be integrated into the European Union’s common foreign policy,” Tvalchrelidze stated. He added, “Georgia will have to change its rhetoric toward the European Union and cooperate more actively with Brussels” (Author’s interview, April 15).
Another important aspect of the Hungarian events’ impact on Georgian politics is the extent to which Orban’s defeat and the victory of pro-European forces will influence Georgian Dream’s rhetoric. These narratives are radically critical of the “European bureaucracy,” the so-called “deep state,” and non-profit organizations (NGOs) funded by Western foundations (see Strategic Snapshot, September 10, 2025).
Ghia Nodia from Ilia State University does not think that Orbán’s defeat in Hungary will directly affect Georgian Dream’s message box. Nodia stated, “Maybe they will say that this was a victory of the deep state in Hungary. Or all these elections were a conspiracy by Orbán himself, he left somebody like him, and so on.” He added, “Georgian Dream leaders will say that even if the deep state wins in Hungary, Georgia still stands strong in its position and would not give up. So Georgian Dream discourse will not change.” He concluded by claiming, “Of course, objectively speaking, Georgian Dream’s position is weakened, because they lost their best friend or maybe only important friend in Europe. So Orbán’s defeat is bad news for Georgian authorities, but they will not admit that it’s bad news for them” (Author’s interview, April 14).
Negative expectations of how Orbán’s defeat will affect the situation in Georgia—where opposition and civil society protests have continued—stem from some opposition politicians’ fear of increased repression. Petre Tsiskarishvili, the general secretary of Georgia’s main opposition party, the United National Movement (UNM), stated that, by losing Orbán and Budapest as a partner, Georgian Dream becomes almost completely isolated from the European Union. As he underlined, however, this is a result of their own political choice and priorities. He stated, “They will draw their own lessons from Orbán’s loss and further crack down on dissent, abolish political parties, and arrest anybody that could potentially become Georgia’s Péter Magyar.” He concluded by claiming, “Embarking on an ever-deteriorating circle of relations with Brussels and without the Budapest shield against sanctions, Georgian Dream elites will face immense pressure from the EU institutions” (Author’s interview, April 16).
All political forces in Georgia, both the ruling party and the opposition, as well as Georgian civil society and the public, are now closely following the first steps of the new Hungarian government regarding Brussels, Washington, and Moscow. These steps, along with the initial reactions or decisions of Budapest’s external partners, will immediately affect the positions of all Georgian actors, as the pro-European agenda remains the defining factor in the Caucasian country.
Note:
[1] Mikheil Saakashvili was Georgia’s third president and served as a minister in the government of the second President of Georgia, Eduard Shevardnadze. Saakashvili entered politics in 2002 and became president in 2004 after Georgia’s Rose Revolution.
This article was originally published in Eurasia Daily Monitor.
Giorgi Menabde is a journalist based in Georgia. He has collaborated with Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, Radio France International, the Carnegie Moscow Center, Nezavisimaya gazeta, in addition to Georgian newspapers, including 7 Day, Msgepsi, Temi, Droeba, Kvirioni, Mimomxilveli, Republic of Georgia, Free Georgia, Meridiani, Dilis gazeti, Dron, and Alia.